There aren’t many alternatives to the stock market if we want to retire someday, help our kids with college, etc. So, now that the election is over, what will the stock market do?
There’s never any shortage of opinion, so let’s do a quick survey of expert predictions:
There’s never any shortage of opinion, so let’s do a quick survey of expert predictions:
- Citigroup: The nearly quarter trillion dollar financial services/investment banking company predicted that the S&P 500 would fall between 3% and 5% if Mr. Trump was elected. By November 9 it was up 1.5%.
- Dartmouth Economics Professor: 10% drop in global markets. Reality? Global markets fell by 1-5% immediately after the election but now FTSE 100 is up about 2%, Hang Seng down 1.5%, and Nikkei 225 up 12%.
- Fortune and CBS News: The S&P 500 will drop 7% if Trump wins
Hmmmm… Let’s look at actual history for a guide:
- Before the election the market liked it when Hillary Clinton did well and didn’t like it when the news was bad for her. Or, to put it another way, the stock market hated Trump.
- Stock Market Prediction Techniques predicted: A Trump victory, a Clinton victory, Just pick your preferred method.
- There is usually a stock market rally after an election implying that election completion is the big deal.
The bottom line? Presidential elections generally don’t generally matter much to the stock market, per Kiplinger. This is just a special case of the bigger truth that the experts aren’t expert about knowing what will happen day to day with the stock market. Remember, it isn’t hard to start investing and finding out how to invest is easier than you think.
