Two Ways to Lose When It’s Easier to Win

Tiger and mirror image

With the stock market returning, on the average, about 10% a year, it seems extremely easy to make money.  There are two ways to lose though, and both are very popular.  As Martin Luther said, “human reason is like a drunken man on horseback: set it up on one side, and it tumbles over on the other.'”  Many people in each generation distrust the market and refuse to “gamble” with their money.  That lasts for a long time, but after it becomes extremely obvious that others are making money, the distrustful give in and buy whatever just went up in price, only to see it go down, whereupon they sell, locking in the loss, and convincing themselves that they were right to be distrustful.

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Crystal Balls, Goat Entrails, and Day Trading Smarts

hands over a crystal ball

I met a hardworking guy who sees day trading as his ticket out of poverty.  “Sometimes I make $500 a night!”.  It made me want to weep, scream, howl, and laugh.  Out of all the wretchedly bad ideas on how to misuse the amazing stock market, this one is one of the most unkillable, despite innumerable studies demonstrating, “no, you really don’t know the future”.  Ironically, Jill Schlesinger had just written about the disastrous effects of market timing (getting 4.66% return instead of 9.85%).  Rick Ferri also has a good post on this.

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