What is Diversification?

Basket full of colored eggs

If you look at good material on investing for any length of time, you’ll read about diversification.  This is the basic wisdom of not keeping all of your eggs in one basket.  While there’s still no free lunch, diversification is a close second because on the average it both makes you more money and reduces your risk.
So, how do you do it?

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The Smart Penny #2:  Coins that Predict the Future

Coin being flipped

By the end of this post, if you aren’t convinced, I’ll sell you my “smart penny” which correctly predicted whether a stock would go up or down for ten days straight.  If you buy the penny, which I will try very hard to persuade you not to do, I’ll get a new batch of pennies and start flipping, If I have about a thousand pennies, one of them is likely to “predict” ten stock results, just by the law of averages.

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The Smart Penny #1:  The Gambler’s Fallacy

Small pile of pennies

If you flip a coin and get heads 4 times in a row, the next flip is likely to be tails, right?  That reasoning, which often makes intuitive sense to us, is dead wrong.  We start from something true:  coin flips tend to average out to half heads, half tails.  If you jump from that to assuming that past coin flips affect future ones, you’re implicitly saying that the coin remembers and acts.

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